The Note: Inside Clinton's Numbers Advantage

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June 28, 2016

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Inside Clinton's Numbers Advantage

Clinton Bests Trump on Orlando Massacre Response and Terrorism

Mirroring her rebound in the overall race for the White House, Clinton leads Trump by 50-39 percent in trust to handle terrorism in this poll, ABC's GREGORY HOLYK reports. Hillary Clinton has moved ahead of Donald Trump in trust to handle terrorism, boosted by her response to the Orlando attack. This reflects Clinton's superior marks for her response to Orlando. More think she did a better job than Trump responding to the attacks overall (by 18 points, 46-28 percent) and showed better temperament in her response (by 34 points, 59-25 percent). Looking forward, more say Clinton gave them confidence that she could handle a similar incident as president (+19 points vs. Trump, 53-34 percent). http://abcn.ws/297ldVn

Clinton's Lead Among Nonwhite Voters Surges

Clinton's double-digit lead over Donald Trump in the latest national poll is significant, and her standing among minority voters is even more dramatic. An ABC News/Washington Post poll released Sunday has Clinton leading among nonwhite voters by the biggest margin yet: 77 percent of nonwhite voters side with the presumptive Democratic nominee, compared with 15 percent who prefer her Republican counterpart. ABC's MEGHAN KENEALLY notes, in a March ABC News/Washington Post poll, Trump had a 9-point lead among white voters; that margin went up to 24 points in May but is now down to 10 points. http://abcn.ws/28YHRxv

But Clinton Acknowledges She Has 'Work to Do' on Trustworthiness

Despite the good numbers, Clinton yesterday acknowledged that many voters just don't trust her, admitting, during a rare moment of self-reflection: "I have work to do on this front." "A lot of people tell pollsters they don't trust me," the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee said during her keynote remarks at a women's luncheon in Chicago. "Now I don't like hearing that. And I've thought a lot about what's behind it. And, you know, you hear 25 years worth of wild accusations anyone would start to wonder. And it certainly is true, I've made mistakes. I don't know anyone who hasn't. So I understand people having questions." ABC's LIZ KREUTZ has more. http://abcn.ws/293uUE0

Analysis -- ABC's Rick Klein

It's easy to lose the forest for the very many trees Donald Trump likes to knock down. Still, Tuesday brings one of the more interesting Donald Trump speeches of the general-election campaign. Trump's take on trade – and, more broadly, economic disruption fostered by globalization – is critical to understanding his appeal, and the emotions that are driving the electorate this year. Keep in mind that Trump's criticism of trade deals puts him much closer to Bernie Sanders than, say, Jeb Bush. Trade is an area of clear vulnerability for Hillary Clinton, both as she consolidates the Democratic base and seeks a broader appeal. It's also a tender area for Trump; "Mr. Trump embodies global elites and has taken full advantage of it his entire life," President Obama told NPR, in laughing off comparisons between Trump's rise and the Brexit vote. But if Trump gets beyond name-calling in front of a steel industry firm in Ohio, he'll be getting back to some of his initial campaign appeal, channeling not just the angry voter, but the voter who feels left behind.