The Note: A Preview of the Down-Ballot Trump Effect

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August 30, 2016

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A Preview of the Down-Ballot Trump Effect

Primary Day in Arizona and Florida

Today is a big day on the primary calendar – with Sens. John McCain and Marco Rubio on the ballot against populist upstarts. In Arizona, tea partier Kelli Ward has questioned the health and conservative credentials of the 80-year-old McCain, a two-time presidential candidate. Meanwhile, developer Carlos Beruff – who has been called the "little Trump of Florida" – is challenging Rubio from the right. Both senators are heavily favored to win, ABC's ADAM KELSEY and BENJAMIN SIEGEL note, but their margins will be an indication of the strength (or lack thereof) of the establishment.

Democrats Face Down Populists in Florida

On the Democratic side, former DNC chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz is fighting off progressive favorite Tim Canova, a law professor endorsed by Bernie Sanders whose campaign is well-funded. In the Senate race, Rep. Patrick Murphy is the establishment's choice, riding high on endorsements from President Obama and VP Joe Biden. He's being challenged by Rep. Alan Grayson, a progressive who is running under the cloud of an ethics scandal. Wasserman Schultz and Murphy are expected to win, ABC's ADAM KELSEY and BENJAMIN SIEGEL write.

Analysis -- ABC's Rick Klein

Donald Trump's coattails get a dual test on Tuesday, with Trump-style candidates taking on incumbent Republican senators with national profiles in Arizona and Florida. Both John McCain and Marco Rubio have endorsed Trump's candidacy, despite personal insults the candidate himself has hurled their way. Trump has returned the favors, at least publicly. But Trump's broader message has resonated in the primaries in both races, and any closer-than-comfortable margins will be attributed to the down-ballot Trump effect. It's a dynamic that may carry significant weight in November, even if McCain and Rubio cruise to their nominations as expected. Both men will face off with aggressive Democratic challengers in the fall. They will need the Trump base, whether they like those voters or not. On the other side of the aisle, the Bern gets a test in the primary challenge against Debbie Wasserman Schultz. Bernie Sanders made clear his distaste for the DNC chair, so much so that she was forced out of her job after her emails were hacked on the eve of the convention. Sanders helped raise money for her primary challenger, Tim Canova, in a Florida race that's drawn liberal interest in the wake of the convention. All three big-name incumbents are expected to move on, though not without some bruises.