| Happy Wednesday, and happy 89th birthday to television, the thing that created Donald Trump. If it hadn't been for television, 40-plus percent of us probably would be backing the presidential candidacy of some other mass medium megastar, like Howard Stern or Rush Limbaugh, or whoever's big on Twitter ... wait, that's still Trump, then. | | In today's edition of For the Record, we take a look at the reasons behind Hillary Clinton's polling slump and the possibility of a split between the popular vote and the electoral vote (it hasn't happened for 16 years, so it's officially retro now.) | | But this hardly ever happens - honest! | | If you're unfamiliar about how this whole "voice of the people" thing works -- guess what, so is America! The Electoral College system was set up to give a stronger voice to less-populated states and encouraging presidential hopefuls to appeal to electors outside the population centers. For the most part, the popular vote and the electoral vote have lined up. Out of the 57 presidential elections to date, the Electoral College handed victory to the less-popular candidate only four times: John Quincy Adams in 1824, Rutherford B. Hayes in 1876, Benjamin Harrison in 1888 and George W. Bush in 2000. FiveThirtyEight's ultrasensitive Now-cast gives it better than a 10% chance of happening (with a 9.7% chance Clinton loses out on the Oval Office, and a 0.5% chance it happens to Trump). | | The latest polls provide plenty of reasons to think that a split could happen again. CNN/ORC released a nationwide poll Tuesday morning that showed Trump edging Clinton among likely voters in a four-way race, 45% to 43%. Conversely, Trump is still fighting for victory in consistently Republican states like Arizona, where a new Arizona Republic/Morrison/Cronkite News poll shows Hillary up slightly (perhaps because support for the border wall and deportation of illegal immigrants are both losing big). Along those same lines, a nearly monthlong poll by the Washington Post and SurveyMonkey gives Clinton the advantage in the electoral college. Expect even more conflicting poll results over the next nine weeks. When it's all said and done, only the electoral vote matters, not the polls ... and not the popular vote either, for that matter. | | Lost: 7- to 10-point lead. If found, please contact Hillary for America | | But wait, didn't Hillary have some huge insurmountable lead a few weeks back? It was definitely huge; insurmountable, not so much. You can shrug your shoulders at the Trump-leaning LA Times/USC poll, which has the race tied, but that same CNN/ORC poll we mentioned earlier had Clinton up by 8 just over a month ago. | | What gives? Trustworthiness issues are catching up with her, apparently . Both Clinton (59%) and Trump (61%) are viewed by voters as not honest or trustworthy, according to a USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll. But in general, the voting public views female candidates as naturally trustworthy, and male candidates as naturally competent. If voters think a candidate doesn't line up with those gender roles, the effects can be devastating. "Because the cost of an ethical infraction is higher for a woman, campaigns against women candidates often use the well-worn strategy of launching negative attacks on character or values early in the campaign," says " Keys to Elected Office: The Essential Guide for Women." | | Clinton continues to be dogged by the fallout from her private email server and the subsequent FBI investigation, but Trump's own trustworthiness has been hammered by his refusal to release his tax returns and a campaign donation he made to Florida's secretary of state shortly before she declined to investigate fraud charges against Trump University. But neither controversy will likely have the same impact on Trump. "We expect men to misbehave - boys will be boys," says Clinton scholar Jean Harris, "but when women misbehaved it was more unexpected and more of a horror." | | More from the campaign trail | | • | General anxiety for Clinton: Trump backed by 88 generals, including four 4-star generals (USA TODAY OnPolitics) | | • | Dallas Morning News: 'Trump is -- or has been -- at odds with nearly every GOP ideal this newspaper holds dear' (USA TODAY OnPolitics) | | • | Hillary raises more than a Jeb's worth of campaign donations in August (USA TODAY OnPolitics) | | • | Former Alabama legislator: Sessions could be offered secretary of State or Homeland Security, or Supreme Court seat (Montgomery Advertiser) | | • | Pence: Trump not concerned with political correctness (Springfield News-Leader) | | • | You may not be aware that Bill Clinton is a vegan, since he doesn't bring it up every five minutes (Cincinnati Enquirer) | | • | Christie: Trump's immigration policy consistent, he supports it 100%, and we've always been at war with Eastasia (Asbury Park Press) | | • | Good news for Marco Rubio: Reluctant Hillary Clinton voters in Florida likely to vote for down-ballot GOP candidates (The News-Press) | | | Chill out, thieving neighbor - this election won't be decided by yard signs | | Trip wires, hidden cameras, green spray paint ... this yard sign theft deterrent system has everything but a giant rolling boulder. | |
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