The Note: Debate Expectations - Hofstra Edition

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September 26, 2016

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Debate Expectations - Hofstra Edition

5 Storylines to Watch Tonight

As millions of voters tune in to watch the first general election presidential debate of the 2016 campaign, there are several key factors to keep in mind. The general election has been playing out for about two months now, with Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton taking direct aim at one another, but tonight will be the first time that they square off directly. Here are the major storylines to watch, courtesy of ABC's MEGHAN KENEALLY: http://abcn.ws/2cEM3Fh

The Impact of Debates? It's Debatable

Do these showdowns matter? The chances for impact seem ripe this year. The two most unpopular major-party candidates in the history of ABC News/Washington Post polls are facing off. Donald Trump's unorthodox campaign style and provocative positions have piqued public interest; the debates may be the single best opportunity for him to allay concerns about his qualifications, temperament and policy promises alike. Hillary Clinton, for her part, needs -- like Trump -- to ease questions about her trustworthiness, as well as to spark greater enthusiasm among her supporters. Can either candidate move the needle? It will be tough, ABC's GARY LANGER notes. A review of data since 1960 suggests that past debates have almost never directly and measurably changed the candidates' relative standings. That's admittedly a high standard, though, and at least some debates may have had more subtle impacts. http://abcn.ws/2daluGz

What Gary Johnson Will Be Up To

When Clinton and Trump take the debate stage at Hofstra University tonight Gary Johnson will watching on television some 30 miles away in Twitter's Chelsea office in Manhattan -- armed only with a Twitter handle. The campaign is coordinating with Twitter to build out a robust social media strategy during the 90-minute debate. Both Johnson and his running mate, former Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld, will be live-tweeting throughout the evening. More details from ABC's JORDYN PHELPS: http://abcn.ws/2d3rVMe

Analysis - ABC's Rick Klein

What if he apologizes? What if he behaves himself? What if he drops "Crooked Hillary" for "Madam Secretary"? What if – stay with us here - he doesn't stretch the truth? Forget the no-holds-barred attacks Donald Trump has proven himself capable of. Hillary Clinton's worst nightmare might be humble Trump, since that would flip storylines enough to potentially dominate the takeaways regardless of what else happens at Hofstra. Clinton's camp is pressuring Lester Holt to do the fact-checking the candidate doesn't want to do by herself. But she may be in the position of wanting and needing to draw Trump out – to bait him into a discussion of President Obama's birth status, for instance, or a real policy discussion on Iraq or Afghanistan or ISIS. Clinton-as-aggressor would surely be unexpected. It also may be helpful in a race where she continues to struggle to lock down her base. The latest ABC News/Washington Post poll shows Trump getting a larger share of Republicans and of Romney voters than Clinton is of Democrats and Obama voters. Clinton isn't known for smackdowns. But it may not hurt for her to show some fight.