The Note: Previewing Trump's big speech to Congress tonight

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February 28, 2017

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Previewing Trump's big speech to Congress tonight

The Big Story

Call it optimism, Trump-style. The White House is promising an "optimistic vision" in President Trump's first address to a joint session of Congress. But keep in mind that similar words were used to describe his dystopian convention speech, and later a raw inaugural address that described "American carnage." Tonight, the first lady's box will be filled with family members of those killed by undocumented immigrants. So no, Trump isn't going to suddenly bring on the sunshine. The source of Trump's optimism, if that's what it's going to be called, isn't what's going on in the nation – it's the fact that Trump is now leading it. When the president talks about being the vessel for the hopes of his supporters, this is how he frames his vision. The biggest piece of that message, of course, is the president himself.

The Sleeper Story

Even before an actual health care proposal emerges from the White House, key members of the Republican Study Committee and the House Freedom Caucus are signaling major concerns. And even before a budget proposal is filed by the Trump administration, key House and Senate leaders are squirming over the fact that he's not touching entitlement programs, including Social Security and Medicare. In other words, the president is keeping his campaign promises (or at least versions of them), and members of his own party are disappointed. Republicans on Capitol Hill hoped a Trump presidency would lead to the passage of conservative reforms. But now they're being forced to remember what they seemed to know better a year ago: Trump is not actually a conservative in a sense that conforms with recent political history.

The Shiny Story

The community organizer is back at it, in Trump's telling. In a "Fox and Friends" interview, Trump was asked whether he thinks former President Obama is behind the eruptions at town hall meetings, and the current president agreed. "I think that President Obama is probably behind it, because his people are certainly behind it," Trump said. Surely Trump doesn't think his predecessor is spending the first weeks of his hard-earned retirement scheming to annoy Dave Brat. But now that he's said it, expect Trump to own it and double-down. Trump has been careful with the Obama relationship since becoming president, seeking to cultivate a sense that the two men have a warmth and mutual respect. But Trump may be finding that a fight with Obama – and the suggestion that he's still organizing - has a bigger payoff.