The Note: The crucial health care vote

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March 23, 2017

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The crucial health care vote

The Big Story

Since there's no Plan B, Plan A may have to wait a bit. Unless Plan A gets rewritten in ways House leaders have claimed was impossible, and in ways that would mean major changes (no "tweaks," here) to the bill that's been floating around for the past few weeks, it will not pass the House. Unless many someones are flatout lying about their votes, House Speaker Paul Ryan enters the day of the scheduled vote on his health care overhaul short of 216. The only path to squeaking by appears to be by stripping away Obamacare's guarantee of plans offering "essential health benefits," basics including emergency room, prescription drug and mental health coverage that, conservatives argue, not everyone uses, and that drive up costs for all plans. But that's precisely what Ryan and company have been saying they can't add to this bill, citing budget rules they need to follow to allow the legislative jujitsu of only getting at least 50 Senate votes. Sound more complicated than it has to be? That's only because of a fundamental truth: A sufficient number of members of Congress does not favor the bill as now written. Legislative leaders calculated that speed was their only path, and they're about to find out whether the strategy works in the era of Trump.

The Sleeper Story

He still thinks he's right, about all of it, and everything. A new interview with Time's Michael Scherer, conducted Wednesday as new information flowed in affecting the president's wiretapping claims, provides remarkable insight into the mindset of President Trump. He doesn't apologize for anything -- not for connecting Ted Cruz's father to the J.F.K. assassination, not for his false claim of thousands of Muslims' celebrating in New Jersey on 9/11, not for claiming illegal voters cost him the popular vote (he promises, again, that it will be looked into), and certainly not for claiming President Obama ordered him wiretapped. "That means I'm right," Trump said, referring to information the House Intelligence chairman was presenting that didn't actually show that he's right. And how is he always right?: "I'm a very instinctual person, but my instinct turns out to be right." The president is citing his rally sizes – rallies held as president – as vindication: "The country believes me." And, of course, there's the fact that he won, justification in itself: "I can't be doing so badly, because I'm president, and you're not."

The Shiny Story

Since when does the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee provide updates to the president of the United States on surveillance conducted on his associates? Especially when that committee is investigating contacts involving the president's associates? Chairman Devin Nunes' bizarre day left the California Republican looking more like the campaign surrogate and adviser he once was than the independent oversight committee chairman that he now is. It also left – not coincidentally, surely – President Trump's declaring himself "somewhat" vindicated by the information Nunes chose to deliver to him. "Beyond irregular," the committee's top Democrat, Rep. Adam Schiff of California, said of Nunes' actions. "This is not how you conduct an investigation." Indeed, Nunes' main accomplishment appears likely to be the undermining of the investigation he has been leading. His "new" information about surveillance of Trump associates reveals little new, nothing illegal and nothing that contradicts FBI Director James Comey's statement that there's no evidence to support the president's tweets about wiretapping ordered by President Obama. What else is new? More prominent voices in both parties are now saying only an independent investigator or a special "select" committee can handle this inquiry.

TLDR

The health care vote is still scheduled for today, but the official count is still short with at least 30 Republicans saying they will oppose the legislation, enough to kill the bill.