The Note: The health care ultimatum

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March 24, 2017

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The health care ultimatum

The Big Story

So there is a law of political physics that applies to Donald Trump after all. Actually, this one is basic math, in that House leaders and the White House have never had the majority they assumed they could get, as we approach today's showdown. It's the biggest moment of the young Trump presidency for a cascading and daunting series of reasons. This vote is about basic promise-keeping, President Trump's deal-making reputation, House Speaker Paul Ryan's policy command, Republican unity and legislative momentum that's critical for big-ticket items to come: tax reform, infrastructure, you name it. For all that, everyone with something on the line enters the day with extreme uncertainty. Trump is asking House members to take a leap of faith with him – a president with sagging popularity and no legislative achievements -- on a cobbled-together and unpopular compromise with no final cost estimate and a real chance of never passing the Senate anyway. And yet, if there's ever a moment designed for Donald Trump's showmanship, this is it.

The Sleeper Story

Want to really blow up the Senate – and fast? A new proposal is emerging that would likely do just that, and it has nothing to do with Senate Democrats' vow to filibuster Supreme Court nominee Neil Gorsuch. A proposal is being pushed by some Senate Republicans that would seek to ensure that a House-passed bill could be passed intact by only a simple majority of senators. How would that work? Well, the vice president, of course, is the president of the Senate. The thinking goes that if the Senate parliamentarian ruled that parts of the bill can't be folded into budget reconciliation, Vice President Mike Pence could simply overrule that. Sen. Rand Paul wants the White House to make that commitment now: "That alone, I think, would break the logjam," he told reporters Thursday. Perhaps, but that's not all it would break. This would be the executive branch's changing the rules of the upper legislative body. Filibusters could be broken, perhaps in any circumstance, at the whim of the vice president. In honor of a certain former veep, that would be a BFD.

The Shiny Story

Such drama, such intrigue. President Trump dispatched his top aides and advisers to the Capitol late Thursday to say it's do-or-die time in the House. His main messengers? OMB Director Mick Mulvaney – until very recently a member of the same Freedom Caucus that's frustrating leadership – and Steve Bannon, who spent a chunk of his pre-White House career as House Speaker Paul Ryan's nemesis over at the anti-establishment Breitbart News. Their message – that Trump is ready to move on if the vote doesn't happen today – might be a little too believable to any House members skeptical of their true motives. All of this happens as anonymous Trump associates gripe to The New York Times about Ryan's leadership, hardly helpful in the run-up to the vote. And, of course, the vote may not happen today at all. Rep. Tom Cole, R-Okla., a veteran lawmaker who is close to leadership, told us in the "Powerhouse Politics" podcast that the vote could be as late as Monday, and that House members will stay in Washington as they wait. "They won't be going home," Cole said of his colleagues. "I think it would be a huge mistake to let members out before you resolve this."

TLDR

It's do-or-die day for the House health care bill and, if you believe President Trump's ultimatum, there won't be another chance for Republicans to "repeal and replace."