The Note: Mad dash to day 100

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April 24, 2017

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Mad dash to day 100

The big story

How do you add drama to a shutdown showdown? You complicate it, if you're the Trump team, by trying to get health care done and tax reform started and the border wall paid for – all this week, all as part of an effort to put points on the board for the first 100 days. President Trump is raising the stakes on his first 100 days – that (to quote him) "not very meaningful" metric that he nonetheless outlined as critical during the campaign and the early presidency – by seeming to push for everything at once. Assuming that there's strategy here, and not just bluster combined with a lack of understanding of congressional dynamics, this puts Trump's grand bets about governance all on the line this week. The consequences will be extreme: Either everything is moving again, or the federal government could shut down by week's end. But if the president is in a deal-making mood, does that start by having his attorney general say it will be the Democrats' fault if the government shuts down over Trump's insistence on paying for a border wall?

The sleeper story

The superlatives apply, and are not unexpected: No president has been this unpopular at 100 days in the modern history of polling. But the latest ABC News-Washington Post poll depicts a more nuanced political reality that has implications for governing in the Trump era, and for opposing Trump as well. For all the tumult and dashed plans of this presidency, only 2 percent of Trump voters – yes, 2 percent – say they regret their votes. Voters don't think he's accomplishing much, and are split almost evenly on the question of whether he's keeping his promises. Yet more Hillary Clinton voters say they would rethink their votes than Trump voters who say the same about their choice. (If a hypothetical rematch were held today, Trump may actually get the popular vote victory he somehow still believes was rightfully his.) Here's another stat to greet former President Obama's return to the public stage today: A full two-thirds of voters say the Democratic Party is out of touch with the concerns of most people. On a related point, one notable area where Trump has broad support, including among Democrats? His efforts to pressure companies to keep jobs in the United States.

The shiny story

Harrisburg or the Hilton? That's the question President Trump will be posing for the nation (and the nation's cable networks) with his decision to hold a "BIG" rally Saturday night in Pennsylvania at the same time as the White House Correspondents' Dinner in Washington, D.C. Surely, no one thought he would order in takeout and put away his phone for the night, once the White House and the president's staff announced they would not be attending this year's event. And having other plans doesn't mean he won't tweet about the journalists and stars he sees on the Hilton's red carpet. The event means Trump is marking his 100th day with an act that's openly hostile to the Washington press corps, which he knows only solidifies his standing with his base. He creates a Saturday night split-screen that the media loathes and large swaths of his base loves, and he even can keep his tux in the closet. It's unprecedented, yes, but that doesn't make it dumb.

TLDR

It's a week for the history books: The president will try to get health care and tax reform done, all while trying to keep the government funded before his 100-day mark.