The Note: Trump at War

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April 7, 2017

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Trump at War

The Big Story

Enter Trump at war, after a massive turnabout on policy in the first 80 days of the new administration – and inside the 80 hours since a deadly chemical attack in Syria. President Trump got the world's attention with his decision to launch swift airstrikes against a Syrian air base. The decision seemed at once striking in its speed, and almost mainstream in its scope; one could imagine a President Marco Rubio or a President Hillary Clinton doing almost exactly the same. This, though, was the easy part. What isn't clear is how this fits with a larger strategy, regarding Syria, Russia, ISIS and beyond. Does this signal the start of a new Trump doctrine? What of regime change in Syria? Will the Trump administration now change its policies on refugees? How does Russia react, and China – awkward front-row observers to Thursday night's attack? Critically, what does it really mean when Trump said he would "call on all civilized nations to join us in seeking to end the slaughter and bloodshed in Syria"? If pictures from a single chemical attack jolted the president policy so completely, the next steps should be interesting indeed.

The Sleeper Story

This was one of the loudest moments of the Trump presidency. But viewed another way, it may be one of the quietest. President Trump's highest-profile foreign-policy critics inside his own party – John McCain, Lindsey Graham, Marco Rubio – have seldom offered stronger support for Trump. Democrats and some Republicans are calling for congressional authorization of the military action, but fewer are questioning the airstrikes themselves. European allies that have openly wondered about US leadership in the age of Trump are on board as well. Among those who are upset? The Russians and Iranians. Trump finds himself on a patch of moral high ground, and he has demonstrated a clear break from Obama administration policy with his decisive action. This president has had few moments that offer this much opportunity, yet also this much peril.

The Shiny Story

Twitter is a gold mine, again, for Trump vs. Trump storylines. To settle any arguments: Donald Trump – as private citizen, and then as presidential candidate – was steadfastly against military intervention in Syria when a roughly similar set of circumstances presented themselves during the Obama years. He was unequivocally behind the notion that the president needed congressional authorization for a military strike. And guess what? None of that matters. Trump has shown time and again not only that he's capable of change – "I am flexible. I am proud of that flexibility" – but that his decision-making is not impacted by what he has previously stated his position to be. As a growing number of erstwhile Trump allies have come to see for themselves, don't focus on what the president says but on what he does. Twitter is a mind-boggling record of past Trump statements and positions. But it matters almost not at all in predicting Trump actions.

TLDR

Moved by images of Syrian children left dead after a chemical weapons attack, President Trump ordered the launch of an airstrike against Syria last night. But what isn't clear going forward is if there's a larger strategy on Syria.