The Note: Election Night turns Fight Night in Montana

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May 25, 2017

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Election Night turns Fight Night in Montana

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW TODAY

1. GOP Congressional candidate Greg Gianforte allegedly "body-slammed" Guardian reporter Ben Jacobs in Montana last night. 2. President Trump is meeting with Europe's greatest hits today overseas: German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Emmanuel Macron and European Council President Donald Tusk. 3. Manchester police are keeping their lips sealed about this week's concert attack in intelligence-sharing with the U.S., "furious" that details were leaked to American media, the BBC reports. 4. 23 million more people will not have health insurance a decade from now if the House-passed GOP health care plan becomes law, the Congressional Budget Office says.

Montana Republican allegedly assaults reporter one day before election.

The Republican candidate in the Montana at-large U.S. House of Representatives special election allegedly assaulted a reporter Wednesday, less than 24 hours before polls were to open in the state. In audio of the encounter later posted by The Guardian, Greg Gianforte is heard saying, "I'm sick and tired of you guys... Get the hell out of here." http://abcn.ws/2qYmSTK

QUOTE OF THE DAY

"I went from being vertical one moment to being horizontal the next." -- Guardian reporter Ben Jacobs on "Good Morning America"

THE TAKE with ABC News' Rick Klein

While the president has been traveling, Trumpism earned itself a domestic ideology. (And it's not even connected to the melee in Montana that puts more attention on a House race that was already worrisome for the GOP.) Between President Trump's budget proposal and Trumpcare's official cost estimates, Trump has put himself and his party on record favoring policies that would result in tangible winners and losers – generally well-heeled and healthier winners, and losers who are some of the nation's most vulnerable. Campaign pledges notwithstanding, the Trump budget cuts Medicaid drastically over time and slices Social Security disability insurance, while trimming a range of programs in the vein of food stamps and Meals on Wheels. (Yet, for the big cuts to domestic discretionary spending, Ivanka Trump's favored paid-leave program found itself $19 billion over 10 years.) On the health care bill, 23 million more Americans would lack health care at the end of a 10-year period than have it now under Obamacare, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Back to another campaign promise, those with preexisting conditions have every reason to worry – and premiums for everyone could jump 20 percent next year (an election year) before coming down for some starting in 2020, per the CBO. The influence of both House Speaker Paul Ryan and the House Freedom Caucus are obvious in the combination of the budget and the health care bill. Also obvious? Trump's economic populism has evolved into a more traditional fiscal conservatism, whether he understands and accepts that or not.

TROUBLE IN THE SENATE

The Congressional Budget Office's updated analysis of the GOP health care bill released yesterday won't make the Senate's job any easier. No one wants to have to defend leaving 23 million more Americans without health insurance in ten years compared to current law. Yes, Republicans can pass the bill with just 51 votes in the Senate, but where the key to the House were the conservatives now it's the moderates who are key in the Senate. One possible crack came yesterday when moderate Sen. Susan Collins of Maine expressed concern over that 23 million number noting the "impact would disproportionately affect older, low-income Americans." She won't be the last moderate member with similar worries. Many Senators have already said they want to start from scratch on health care, but with any major overhaul it becomes more difficult to satisfy those colliding moderate and conservative members, ABC's Shushannah Walshe reports.

MONTANA MADNESS

This isn't usually in the get-out-the-vote playbook. Just 12 hours from polls opening in Montana's special election, the race for this vacant U.S. House seat was turned on its head. The election had largely flown under the radar in the national media -- overshadowed by other special elections like Georgia and the seemingly constant drip-drip-drip in the Russia investigation -- but now it's been thrust into the spotlight. The only question: is there enough time for Gianforte's fight night to matter? Election experts believe roughly two in every three ballots in the U.S. House race have already been cast. And in a race that both sides have said will come down to the wire, the last-minute reversal of three of Montana's major newspapers' endorsements and the swarm of national media attention may just be enough to tip the scales. It's a state President Trump won by more than 20 percentage points -- but will this special election be the first splash of an impending Democratic wave? ABC's Ryan Struyk reports.