The Note: Can Republicans stanch the bleeding on health bill?

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June 26, 2017

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Can Republicans stanch the bleeding on health bill?

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW TODAY

1. Next steps for President Trump's travel ban could be decided today. It's the end of the Supreme Court's term today and the court is expected to decide on whether to take up Trump's travel ban when it returns in the fall or let the circuit court decisions stand. 2. Brace for another Supreme Court pick battle? Washington is on alert for a possible retirement announcement that would change the court in a "YUGE" way. There's high speculation that it could be swing-vote Justice Anthony Kennedy. 3. A crucial week for health care. The Congressional Budget Office score is expected early this week. Some GOP senators are waiting for the formal analysis before making their final decision on the bill.. 4. Are we rushing things? Senate GOP leadership wants a vote on the health care bill by Friday, before Congress takes off to celebrate July Fourth.

THE TAKE with ABC News' Rick Klein

"Forget about votes; this has nothing to do with votes," President Trump declared in one of his recent Fox News interviews. The president is right but also very wrong. Of course, it's all about the votes in the Senate, with Majority Leader Mitch McConnell trying to orchestrate a Kabuki dance with a limited number of moves. When it comes to the president's involvement, "We're trying to hold him back a little bit," Majority Whip John Cornyn told reporters, with a smile, on Sunday. (Maybe that's because the president is calling the House bill he once celebrated "mean," even while his super PAC allies go to war with one of the "very fine senators" who might say the same about the current bill.) Yet as the focus turns to deal-making, this is not really about handouts or kickbacks. This bill is deadly serious policy; it could be law by the end of the week, with the House poised to capitalize on any Senate momentum. This is where political muscle is measured, in influencing this week on actual votes, not at vague points in the run-up to 2018. The human consequences will jostle for attention with the political ones in the coming quite interesting days.

THE IMPACT ON MEDICAID

Sen. Ben Sasse, R-Neb., would not commit to voting one way or another on the health care bill over the weekend. He called the legislation less "repeal-and-replace" and more Medicaid reform. Under the Senate bill, funding for those covered under the Obamacare Medicaid expansion would dry up in 2024, depending on the state. Those are people who earn between $12,000 and $16,000 a year (slightly more if pregnant or in nursing home, and after that the government would increase Medicaid funding at rates significantly lower than the actual growth rate of medical costs. The U.S. population is aging rapidly and already, under current law, the program covers over 6 million low-income elders. Almost 2 million Americans rely on Medicaid for nursing home or other long-term care costs. About 35 million children depend on the program as well. Should the federal government stop providing funds, cash-strapped states will either have to cut folks off their Medicaid rolls or fix their balance sheets another way. Republican lawmakers have talked for decades about shrinking and adjusting programs like Medicaid but they are finding even Republican governors pushing back, having come to rely on the federal dollars to cover the poorest in their states, ABC News' MaryAlice Parks writes.

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

President Trump hosts India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the White House today and the two will give a joint statement tonight.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

"These are not cuts to Medicaid, George. This slows the rate for the future and it allows governors more flexibility with Medicaid dollars because they're closest to the people in need," Trump counselor Kellyanne Conway on the Senate health care bill on ABC News' "This Week"