The Note: The Warren Factor

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June 27, 2016

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The Warren Factor

Clinton and Warren Hit the Trail in Ohio

Hillary Clinton hits the campaign trail this morning with Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren for their first public appearance together this election, ABC's JOSH HASKELL and LIZ KREUTZ note. The two will campaign in Cincinnati, Ohio. Warren endorsed Clinton two weeks ago becoming the last female democratic senator to endorse the former Secretary of State after Warren had stayed on the sidelines during the primary. When Warren, one of the faces of the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, endorsed Clinton, she said she was "ready to get into this fight" and days later the two held a private meeting at Clinton's DC home.

United Against Trump

Warren and Clinton both share a desire to do everything they can to "stop Donald Trump" from becoming president, and, according to a campaign aide, they will both warn of the risks Trump would have on the economy during their event today, according to HASKELL and KREUTZ. "The Republicans underestimated and underestimated and underestimated Donald Trump. Look where that got them. They kept saying, no, no, no, that's not going to happen, we don't have to worry about that," Warren said when she endorsed Clinton. "Donald Trump is a genuine threat to this country. He is a threat economically to this country. But he is a threat to who we are as a people. There is an ugly side to Donald Trump that we all have to stop and think about what's going on here." As Clinton and Warren's relationship continues to evolve and Warren's stock grows as a possible choice for vice president, it appears the senator is diving head first into helping elect Clinton. She even stopped by Clinton's Brooklyn presidential campaign headquarters 10 days ago to give staffers a pep talk telling them "Don't screw this up."

Clinton Opens 12-Point Lead Over Trump

Hillary Clinton surged to a broad advantage against Donald Trump in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, capitalizing on Trump's recent campaign missteps. According to ABC's GARY LANGER, two-thirds of Americans see him as biased against groups such as women, minorities or Muslims, and a new high, 64 percent, call Trump unqualified to serve as president. These and other doubts about Trump have produced a sharp 14-point swing in preferences among registered voters, from +2 points for Trump in mid-May, after he clinched the GOP nomination, to +12 points for Clinton now, 51-39 percent. That snaps the race essentially back to where it was in March. http://abcn.ws/28Vxgpy

Analysis -- ABC's Rick Klein

Live by the polls, die by the polls, kill the polls that give you bad news. As Donald Trump fights polling he views as unfair, the top line numbers in the new ABC News/Washington Post poll are the least of Trump's problems. The poll shows that two-thirds of voters see Trump as biased against women and minorities, and two-thirds think his comments about the judge in the Trump University case were racist. Sixty-four percent see him as unqualified for the presidency, and 70 percent say the idea of Trump as president gives them anxiety. Given those numbers, a 51-39 Hillary Clinton edge actually looks narrow. Clearly, there's room for movement in either direction for Trump. But he's dug himself a hole that suggests he could dip significantly lower before he's done litigating polling quibbles.